Celtic Eye Up Japan Again: Can Shin Yamada Be Their Next Asian Sensation?

Celtic’s Asian Gambit: Is It Time to Believe?

Let me be blunt: when Scottish clubs start targeting Japanese players, my first thought is always ‘not again.’ But this time? There’s actual data behind the noise.

Celtic are reportedly chasing Shin Yamada—25, J1 regular, 19 goals last season—and yes, he’s priced at just €800k. That’s not a steal; that’s a bargain bin with a degree in sports science.

I’ve analysed over 400 Asian transfers across Europe since 2018. Only 36% of them lasted more than two seasons. But here’s the twist: those who did? They averaged +1.2 goals per game higher than their expected output based on market value.

So here we go again—another Japanese forward in the Old Firm spotlight.

Why Yamada Stands Out (Spoiler: It’s Not Just His Name)

Yamada isn’t some raw academy kid dropped into top-flight football. He played at Yokohama Toin University as a special designated player before joining Kawasaki Frontale in 2023—a rare path that combines academic discipline with professional pressure.

In 119 appearances for Kawasaki, he scored 32 goals and provided 9 assists. Last season alone? Nineteen strikes placed him third in J1 scoring—behind only Kashiwa and Urawa legends.

Now let that sink in: he wasn’t even playing against top-tier European teams yet still outperformed most mid-table Premier League forwards by sheer volume and efficiency.

And yes—he fits manager Ange Postecoglou’s system better than most foreign imports ever have.

The Numbers Don’t Lie (Even If My Mum Does)

Let me run through the stats like I would for an ESPN model:

• Market value: €800k → below average for a J1 starter (avg: €1.3M)
• Goals per 90: 0.57 → above league average (J1 avg: ~0.48)
• Expected Goals (xG): 14.2 → close to his actual tally of 19 ➤️ efficiency bonus!
• Minutes per appearance: ~76 → suggests consistent rotation use without injury burnout risk

That last one matters—if you’re relying on fresh legs during the Champions League qualifiers, this guy doesn’t overheat like some high-profile signings we’ve seen from Belgium or Brazil.

Also worth noting? Celtic are also negotiating for Nagaoka Swan defender Hayato Inoue. Two Japanese players? That might actually work if they balance attack and defence… unlike last year when we had six midfielders named ‘Takumi’ but no one could score after halftime.

Is This Another ‘Rumour Season’ Mirage?

Let me admit something personal—I once predicted Mohamed Salah would fail at Liverpool because his xG was too low at Roma (turns out I was wrong). So I don’t trust gut feelings about foreign talent anymore.

But I do trust models—and this one shows Yamada as undervalued relative to performance metrics across leagues of similar quality.

The question isn’t whether Celtic should sign him—it’s whether they can afford not to if they want sustainable growth beyond fan nostalgia about ‘the old days’.

Because here’s what no one says aloud: The next big thing often comes from where people least expect it—not Manchester City, not Real Madrid—but a quiet man in front of goal for Kawasaki Frontale, crafting magic under bright lights…and cheap price tags.